1 Machine supported Development of Fuzzy- Flood Forecast Systems

Abstract. The development of a system for the automated creation of flood forecast models is presented. The system concept is based on building rainfall-runoff models using Fuzzy Logic. Beginning with the discussion of manual discharge forecast of a flood event, the structure of special fuzzy models is pointed out on the basis of an existing rainfall-runoff model. The parallels to the manual forecast calculation are specified and referred to the problems with the generation of complex rainfall-runoff models. It is then shown, how these problems can be solved. The algorithm and it’s implementation in a development system is described for an almost completely automated generation for fuzzy rainfall-runoff models. Additionally practical forecast results are demonstrated.