Religion and Core Values: A Reformulation of the Funnel of Causality*

This study reformulates the classic funnel of causality proposed in The American Voter. Where The American Voter suggests that group affiliation and values are equally influential in candidate choice, the foundational sociological literature suggest that values are derived from group affiliation, and therefore The American Voter has misconceptualized the ordering of these influences. We concur with the sociological literature, which suggests that values are more proximate to that decision than is group affiliation. Examining data from a 2002 statewide survey of Florida residents, and using religious affiliation as a measure of group affiliation, we explore the effects of political core values, such as egalitarianism and moral traditionalism, and religious affiliation on support for Florida Governor Jeb Bush and vote intentions. We employ ordered logistical models to test our Proximity Hypothesis, finding support for the contention that in the process of forming an attitude about a political candidate, core values are more proximate to the final attitude than is group affiliation. This finding is an important contribution to the debate in political behavior over the relative influence of individual belief systems and groups. * We would thank Ken Wald and Ken Webber for reviewing earlier drafts of this manuscript 2In this study, we examine the effects of core values on vote intentions and on individual-level approval of Jeb Bush, the sitting governor of Florida, asking whether the effects of religious affiliation, long seen as a strong predictor of vote choice (Glantz 1959