Cycles and shifts: 1,300 years of multi-decadal temperature variability in the Gulf of Alaska

tive to shifts in North Pacific climate variability. Here we present an extended tree-ring record of January– September GOA coastal surface air temperatures using tree-ring width data from coniferous trees growing in the mountain ranges along the GOA. The reconstruction (1514–1999), based on living trees, ex-plains 44 % of the temperature variance, although, as the number of chronologies decreases back in time, this value decreases to, and remains around ~30 % before 1840. Verification of the calibrated models is, however, robust. Utilizing sub-fossil wood, we extend the GOA reconstruction back to the early eighth century. The GOA reconstruction correlates significantly (95 % CL) with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (0.53) and North Pacific Index (–0.42) and therefore likel