SOUTHERN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS JULY, 1973 MARKOV INTERTEMPORAL LAND USE SIMULATION MODEL

The simulation model discussed in this paper the dynamics of future land use. If the processes evolved from problems encountered in estimating underlying land use shifts are quantified, then future future United States cropland availability as part of adjustments in land use can be projected. Further, the OBERS agricultural projection system.l Available specifications of the underlying shifts in land use literature describing land use changes indicate that makes it possible for resource economists to provide land resource economists have not been concerned policy makers with economic intelligence concerning with projecting future patterns of land use implied by the variables that influence future use of the land historic observations [2, 3, 4]. resource, or alternatively, suggest changes in Some research has involved selection of optimum economic, social, or institutional variables to insure cropping patterns for agricultural cropland subject to that desired future land use is realized. Quantification alternative flood plain management policies [7]. of the inter-land use relationships is accomplished by However, the broader application of such models development of a Markov chain land use simulation between sectors (agriculture, industrial, urban, etc.), model. in the main, has been ignored. Because of "historical METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK bias " there has not been a concerted effort to develo