Causal Reasoning: Initial Report of a Naturalistic Study of Causal Inferences

Motivation – This paper describes the initial results of a naturalistic inquiry into the way people derive causal inferences. Research approach – We examined media accounts of economic, political, military, and sports incidents to determine the types of causal explanations that are commonly invoked. Findings – We found two interacting processes at work: the identification of potential causes and the framing of these causes into explanations. Explanations took several forms: abstractions, events, lists (undifferentiated collections of partial causes), conditions, and stories (complex mechanisms linking several causes). Originality – Causal reasoning in "the real world " is both different from and far richer than the formal causal accounts found in philosophy, and from the determinate search for causes during scientific problem solving. Takeaway message – By understanding the way causal reasoning is done in natural settings we should be better able to help decision makers diagnose problems and anticipate consequences