Comparing the effects of fire modeling methods on simulated fire patterns and succession: a case study in the Missouri Ozarks. Can J For Res 38:1290–302

Abstract: We compared four fire spread simulation methods (completely random, dynamic percolation. size-based mini-mum travel time algorithm. and duration-based minimum travel time algorithm) and two fire occurrence simulation methods (Poisson fire frequency model and hierarchical fire frequency model) using a two- way factorial design. We examined these treatment effects on simulated forest succession dynamics and fire patterns including fire frequency. size, burned area, and shape complexity of burned patches. The comparison was carried out using a forest landscape model (LANDIS) for a sur-face fire regime in the Missouri Ozark Highlands. Results showed that incorporation of fuel into fire occurrence modeling significantly changed simulated dynamics of fire frequency and area burned. The duration-based minimum travel time algo-rithm produced the highest variability in fire size, and the dynamic percolation method produced the most irregular burned patch shapes. We also found that various fire modeling methods greatly affected temporal fire patterns in the short term, but such effects were less prominent in the long term. The simulated temporal changes in landscape-level species abundances were similar for different fire modeling methods, suggesting that a complex fire modeling method may not be necessary for examining coarse-scale vegetation dynamics. RCsumP: Nous avons compark quatre mkthodes de simulation de la propagation du feu (complktement alkatoire, percolation dynamique. algorithme du temps minimum de propagation base sur la dimension et algorithme du temps minin~unl de propa-gation bask sur la durie) et deux mkthodes de simulation de 170ccurrence des feux (modkle de frkquence des feux de Poisso