Cross Hedging Hay Using Corn Futures: An Empirical Test

This study examines the use of corn futures contracts to cross hedge both U.S. hay and New Mexico alfalfa hay. Correlations between monthly spot U.S. hay prices and corn futures prices ranged from.828 to.970 and were all significant at the a =.0001 level. Multiple regres-sion was used to determine the optimal corn futures contract month to cross hedge each spot monthly hay price. Regressions were used to determine the coverage ratio of tons of hay per corn futures contracts. A routine cross hedge was simulated and showed that cross hedging hay using corn futures increases gross returns per ton of hay. The marketing alternatives used by the alfalfa hay industry typically include sale at harvest, storage throughout the year and forward contracting. Outside of forward contracting, no mechanism exists for al-falfa hay producers and handlers to shift risks of unfavorable price changes. This paper examines the cross hedging possibilities for hay as a means of shifting price risk. This was examined using monthly New Mexico alfalfa hay prices, monthly U.S. average prices for all hay at the farm level and the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures prices. There is little in the literature about cross hedging. Anderson and Danthine provide a theoretical description of hedg-ing in futures markets that attempts to ac-count for the behavior of a broad class of agents. They derive optimal decision rules for agents concerned with the mean and variance of profit, and use these rules to evaluate how optimal cash and futures po-sitions are related to price expectations, the production possibilities and the num-ber of futures markets available. Ander-son and Danthine state "many cash good