Forecast Estimation of Heavy Metals Values in a Soils

Abstract: Recently problem of accumulation of heavy metals in an atmosphere, soils both waters in the natural and antropogently-modified landscapes is characteristic for many countries of the world. The soil can be considered as the integrated indicator of long-term process of pollution of an environment giving representation about quality of environments connected with soil- air and waters. The influence of heavy metals on an environment constantly amplifies in process of increase of scales and intensity of economic activity of the people, and the knowledge of laws of spatial distribution of heavy metals becomes urgent necessity. The various analytical methods are applied to research of the spatial concentration of heavy metals in soils. At the same time it is necessary to carry out a polyelement estimation of soil and to take into account variety of the factors at absence of the information a priory on probable distribution of heavy metals in a soils, which, is rather complex systems. Such necessity dictated development of a method of a grouping soil given for a forecast estimation of the concentration of heavy metals in soils on a basis of the cluster analysis. As model object were used of soils of Predvolgie of Tatarstan Republic. The forecast estimation of the concentration of heavy metals in soils is carried out by application of a method of a grouping of soil date by concentration of heavy metals, on the basis of linguistic clusterisation, consecutive estimation procedure and fuzzy sets. With the purpose of reception of estimated concentration of heavy metals in soils of Predvolgie the data on the basic physical and chemical parameters of soils, concentration of six heavy metals were used: lead, copper, nickel, zinc, chromium, manganese, and also rank estimations of an ecological condition of territory and total emissions of polluting substances in an atmosphere on a card of an ecological situation of Tatarstan Republic. The sharing of quantitative and qualitative parameters is characteristic for the analysis of a condition of soils for the complex approach to an estimation of territory