Please see PDF presentation from Michael Whiticar. Exploring the Future of Offshore Oil and Gas Development in B.C. The Role for Natural Gas

Comments to set the stage. Let us look at where we are headed in a global sense. Global oil consumption has increased about 10 % in the last ten years. The projections are that this increase will continue if not accelerate in the future-- we presently consume globally about 75 to 80 million barrels of oil a year and consumption could increase by 50 % or more within 20 years. In short, we are on a trajectory of increased reliance on oil. One thing to bear in mind in this context is that much of the oil that we use in the future will come from the Middle East. At present, about 40 % of global oil is derived from that region and that percentage probably will increase in the future. We are in the rather dangerous situation of being reliant on an area of the world that is politically unstable. Yet we show no indication that we are ready to wean ourselves from our addiction to oil. Similar trends are likely in natural gas consumption; in fact we see an increase in consumption of gas relative to oil in the future. Finally, look at Canadian oil production-- this production will plateau in coming years; it fact, it may already have plateaued. In the United States, peak oil production occurred about 1970 and has declined ever since. There is debate as to when oil production will peak in a global sense. Some people claim that we are very close to a peak production, whereas others argue that it is some time down the road yet, perhaps 20 years or more. Whenever this occurs, as it inevitably will, we may be faced with increasing demand and a diminishing supply. If we think that $30-a-barrel oil is expensive we may be in for a shock in the future-- $30-a-barrel oil may be considered cheap a decade from now