Simulation-Based Plan-Parameter Adaptation, Sequence Replanning and Order Splitting for Risk Control within Logistic Risk Management

Today’s industry is facing stiff challenges: The market demands more flexible reaction capability in combination with high level reliability. Especially for forging industry, which is characterized by long set-up times and large order quantities, the improvement of production planning and control accuracy is getting more exigent. On the one hand, forging companies aim the reduction of their stock level to minimize capital commitment. However, the reduction of stock level frequently induces missing parts or raw material and consequently the risk of decreasing the deliver reliability. On the other hand, forging industry is situated in a turbulent logistic environment caused by continuously fluctuating demands and unreliable raw material suppliers. Combined with the mentioned reduction of stock level, achieving the desired logistic performance is barely possible. Hence, logistic risk management is needed to improve the production planning and control (PPC) through an early identification, quantification and assessment of logistic risks in the supply chain. This paper introduces methods for risk control as part of logistic risk management. These methods encompass a simulation-based plan-parameter adaptation for a long term risk control as well as a sequence replanning and an order splitting for a short term risk control