Using landscape metrics to model source habitat for Neotropical migrants

models, Neotropical migrants, reproductive success, source-sink dynamics, wood thrushes Size of a forest patch is a useful predictor of density and reproductive success of Neotropical migratory birds in much of eastern North America. Within these forested landscapes, large forest tracts appear to be sources – fragments in which surpluses of offspring are produced and can potentially colonize new fragments including woodlot sinks where reproduction fails to balance adult mortality. Within agricultural landscapes of the midwestern U.S., where forests are severely fragmented, high levels of brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) and intense predation on nests generally result in low reproductive success for Neotropical migrants regard-less of forest size. In some midwestern U.S. landscapes, however, the variation in reproductive success among forest fragments suggests that ‘source ’ habitat could still exist for Neotropical migrants. We used vegetation, fragment and landscape metrics to develop multivariate models that attempt to explain the variation in abundance and reproductive success of Neotropical migrants nesting in an agricultural landscape in northern Indiana, USA. We produced models that reasonably described the pattern of species richness of Neotropical migrants and the abundance of wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and several other Neotropical migrant species within 14 forest fragments. In contrast, we were unable to produce useful models of the reproductive success of wood thrushe