PREDICTORS OF AXILLARY LYMPH NODE INVOLVEMENT IN SCREEN-DETECTED BREAST CANCER

Background: Axillary lymph node dissection as routine part of breast cancer treatment has been questioned in relation to the balance between benefits and morbidity. The purpose of this study is to determine the association of tumor size, age and histological grade with axillary lymph node metastasis, to determine if some patients could be exempted from axillary dissection. Methods: The data are derived from BreastScreen NSW, the government sponsored population-based breast screening program. In New South Wales (NSW) Australia between 1995 and 2002, 7,221 patients with invasive breast carcinoma were diagnosed and 5,290 patients were eligible for this study. The relationship between incidence of positive axillary lymph nodes and three study factors (tumor size, age and histological grade) was investigated by univariate and multivariate analysis. Logistic regression models were used to predict probability of axillary metastases. Results: The incidence of axillary lymph node metastases was 28.6 % (95 % CI: 27.4%-29.8%). Univariate analysis showed that age, tumor size and histological grade were significant predictors of axillary lymph node metastases (p<0.0001). Multivariate analysis identified age, tumor size and histological grade remained as independent predictors (p<0.0001). From multivariate analysis, patients with T1a ( ≤ 5mm) and grade I tumors regardless of age had 5.2 % (95 % CI: 1.2%- 9.3%) frequency of node metastases. Patients 70 years or older with grade I, T1a and T1b (6-10mm) tumors ha