DO1:10.1080/10635150701485091 Summarizing a Posterior Distribution of Trees Using Agreement Subtrees

Abstract.—Bayesian inference of phylogeny is unique among phylogenetic reconstruction methods in that it produces a posterior distribution of trees rather than a point estimate of the best tree. The most common way to summarize this distribution is to report the majority-rule consensus tree annotated with the marginal posterior probabilities of each partition. Reporting a single tree discards information contained in the full underlying distribution and reduces the Bayesian analysis to simply another method for finding a point estimate of the tree. Even when a point estimate of the phylogeny is desired, the majority-rule consensus tree is only one possible method, and there may be others that are more appropriate for the given data set and application. We present a method for summarizing the distribution of trees that is based on identifying agreement subtrees that are frequently present in the posterior distribution. This method provides fully resolved binary trees for subsets of taxa with high marginal posterior probability on the entire tree and includes additional information about the spread of the distribution. [Agreement subtrees; Bayesian phylogenetic inference; credible sets; posterior distribution of trees; threshold accepting.] Phylogenetic inference has long been troubled by the difficulty of performing statistical analysis on tree topologies. The topologies are discrete, categorical, and non-nested hypotheses about the species relationships