Health Profiles of the

THE NUMBER OF oldest old persons in China, defined here as aged 80 and older, is calculated by the United Nations to climb from about 11.5 million in the year 2000 to 27 million in 2020, 39 million in 2030, 64 million in 2040, and 99 million in 2050.1 Under the UN’s medium fertility assump-tion,2 the percent aged 65 and older is expected to increase from 6.9 in 2000 to 15.7 in 2030 and 22.7 in 2050, while the share of the oldest old which in 2000 is 13 percent of the elderly population will be some 30 per-cent in 2050. The main reason the number of oldest old will climb so quickly after 2030 is that China’s “baby boomers, ” who were born in the 1950s and 1960s, will fall into the category of “oldest old ” at that time. During 2000–50 the population of the oldest old will grow faster than any other age group in China. This phenomenon is not limited to China. The average annual rates of increase of oldest old persons between 200