Reliability, Reputation, and Alliance Formation∗

In this paper we examine how the past alliance behavior of nations affects the likelihood that these states will be involved in alliance formation. We contend that nations evaluate the reputations of potential allies when searching for alliance partners. Reputation information is processed by governments along with other immediate concerns. By introducing a model and developing subsequent measures of reputational alliance histories we improve upon our current understanding of the factors that drive alliance formation. ∗Prepared for the 2009 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto, CA. Author names are listed alphabetically. Data assembly was conducted with the help of EUGene 3.03 (Bennett and Stam, 2000). The authors would like to thank Brian Lai and Timothy Nordstrom for their helpful comments. The authors also thank Ashley Leeds both for her assistance and for sharing her data