When Uncertainty is Likely to Trigger Change in a Decision? An Evolving Research Theme in the SECC

Uncertainty in agricultural responses using climate forecast Climate variability associated with ENSO is now predictable. This suggests a potential to tailor agricultural management to benefit from climate variability. Deterministic/stochastic crop model is recognized method to address climate sensitivities and are used routinely in decision/management formulation. Why uncertainty in a crop model matters? 1. Most times, the only uncertainty considered is climate uncertainty. 2. Quantification of uncertainty is required as input to any decision analysis 3. Uncertainty analysis should play a diagnostic role in an assessment to highlight factors whose uncertainty is pivotal in determining actions. 4. We have not put enough efforts to document impacts of uncertainty on decisions. Ho: Uncertainties add another level of complexity in decision making. How uncertainty is currently handled in Ag Models?- Field calibration/validation- Spatial / temporal probability inputs Examples within the SECC