1 Trends and Determinants of Rural Poverty: A Logistic Regression Analysis of Selected Districts of Punjab.

Poverty is widespread in the rural areas, where the people are in a state of human deprivation with regard to incomes, clothing, housing, health care, education, sanitary facilities and human rights. Nearly 61 % of the country’s populations live in rural areas. In Pakistan poverty has been increased in rural areas and is higher than urban areas. Of the total rural population 65 % are directly or indirectly linked with agriculture sector. In Pakistan more than 44.8 % people generate their income from agriculture sector, and the higher rate of increase in poverty in the rural areas has provoked debate on growth and productivity trends in the agriculture sector. Therefore, it is the need of the hour to determine such factors which affect the poverty status of a rural household. Utilizing unique IFPRI (International Food and Policy Research Institute) panel data together with sub-sample of PRHS (Pakistan Rural Household Survey) for two districts of Punjab (Attock and Faisalabad) the present study aim at analyzing and estimating the rural poverty trends and determinants of rural poverty from the late 1980’s to 2002. The data was analyzed by using binary logistic model and head count measure. The results show that the chance of a household tripping to poverty increased due to increase in household size, dependency ratio, while, education, value of livestock, remittances and farming decreased the likelihood of being a poor. Moreover, the socio-economic opportunities as represented by the availability of infrastructure in the residential region also play a significant role in the level of poverty faced by a household. This study makes a modest contribution by attempting to analyze the need for focusing on anti-poverty policies, which can nip the evil in the bud