Political Prowess or ‘‘Lady Luck’’? Evaluating Chief Executives ’ Legislative Success Rates

How successful should we expect chief executives to be in their relationships with the legislature? Answering this question is key to making judgments about the political prowess and lawmaking abilities of particular rulers. I introduce a standard to compare the actual performances of chief executives around the world based on the notion that variations in chief executives ’ legislative success rates stem from the unpredictability of legislators ’ behavior. The results underscore the role of uncertainty in statutory policymaking: on average, chief executives ’ performances are not much different from what should be expected if legislators flip coins to decide how to respond to their proposals. I also analyze the individual performance of chief executives statistically. The findings suggest that the standard by which we should judge the performance of chief executives cannot be conceived in isolation of the conditions under which they operate. So, for example, to be deemed as successful, a typical Westminster-style prime minister should be able to obtain passage of almost all of her pieces of legislation. In contrast, if a chief executive operating in a separation-of-powers system, with a highly fragmented legislature, secures passage for more than two-thirds of her proposals, she can be considered a very successful lawmaker. M ore than three decades ago Samue