Resilience and Adaptability in the lower Amudarya river basin, Central Asia

The current water management regime in the Amudarya river basin, Central Asia, has proven to be rather resistant to change despite external and internal pressures caused by recent political, environmental or donor induced developments in the region. The poor ability of the social-ecological system (SES) in the river basin to adapt to ongoing ecological and political changes seems to decrease the resilience of the social-ecological system to internal and external shocks, which was evident e.g. in the impacts of a severe drought in 2000/2001. By analyzing the resis-tance of the current system to change and first attempts of institutional change in land and water management in the Amudarya river basin based on historic developments we determine drivers of policy and institutional change as well as structural factors and mechanisms that act as barriers to change. Does the reform process in water management increase the resil-ience of the SES to changes in resource availability? The analysis reveales structures and processes of the social-ecological system that contribute to its current inflexibility and resistance to change. They are rooted in the history of the social-ecological system in the river basin, such as the economic dependence on cotton and other agricultural products and the state-centered management approach. The centralization of power and competences reduces the capacity of the system to react on the adequate scale. This is aggravated by a loss of transparency, compe-2 tence and knowledge caused by the transition process. However, there are opportunities for change and adaptation, rooted in the large restoration ca-pacity of the ecosystems as well as in the increasing awareness and grow-ing experience in designing and dealing with new institutional structures, especially at the local level, and the high flexibility of the system once a decision is taken at the national level