THE DEMOGRAPHY OF MEXICAN MIGRATION TO THE US

The last three decades have been an exceptional period in Mexican migration to the United States. As recently as 1970, the share of Mexico’s population living in the US was only 1.5%; by 2005, it had risen to 10.2%. While the flow of labor across the Mexico-US border is not a new phenomenon, with previous surges occurring in the 1920s and 1950s, persistent mass migration between the countries did not take hold until late in the 20th century. Among the factors contributing to large scale emigration from Mexico are weak growth in the country’s labor demand and strong growth in its labor supply. After enjoying sustained economic progress in the 1960s and 1970s, Mexico’s economy stagnated in the 1980s. Repeated currency crises reversed the effects of short-lived expansions, leaving per capita GDP in the early 2000s more or less unchanged from two decades before. During periods of wage decline in Mexico, emigration from the country spiked (Gordon Hanson and Antonio Spilimbergo, 1999; Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny, 2005). Perhaps less appreciated is that the 1980s were also a period of accelerated growth in Mexico’s relative labor supply. With the US baby boom peaking in 1960, the number of US native born individuals coming of working age actually declined in the 1980s. Adding in th