Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System in an Oil Constrained Future

The upcoming challenges in the energy sector coupled with growing concern about climate risks are likely to result in dramatic changes in public policy. The choice of energy and transportation strategies will have a profound impact on the future of the United States of America and the world. A business as usual scenario indicates lower GDP, labor-intensive employment with high unemployment and increasing CO2 emissions. Practical options exist to turn this scenario into higher GDP, good employment and lower CO2 emissions. Several policy scenarios were modeled with constrained oil supply using Millennium Institute’s T21-USA model. The most positive result by every significant metric (GDP, greenhouse gas emissions, oil used) came from the combination of the two most environmentally positive policies: a massive push for electrified rail transportation (inter-city railroads and Urban Rail) coupled with a massive push for renewable energy, to be completed by 2030. With an estimated total investment of $250-500 billion in inter-city railroad lines Non-Oil Transportation could supplant most inter-city truck freight and unspecified modal share of passenger service. Up to $60 billion/year ($1.2 trillion over 20 years), spent cost effectively on Urban Rail, shoul