Towards a Sustainable Tourism Product for Jamaica: A Dynamic Simulation Modelling Approach

This paper presents a system dynamics-based tourism model, which focuses on the dynamic interdependencies between the hospitality sector and both the labour market and the manufacturing sector. The model incorporates a generic value-chain structure (VCM) that allows modelling of customer-supplier value chain for the tourism sector. Additionally, a work-force structure is incorporated into the analysis to capture the labour dynamics surrounding the hospitality sector. As such, the model developed integrates several concepts of traditional network-based approaches to enhance the applicability of the model to the Jamaican tourism sector. The model adequately captures the dynamics of the tourism sector between 1990 and 2005. The paper also assesses the effects of large but plausible shocks to demand for the product and capacity on, among other things, capacity adjustments and the demand for labour over the medium term. The results of such experimentation are used to make policy oriented recommendations to enhance the sustainability of the sector as well its contribution to the growth an