VERIFICATION OF NOWCASTING-SAF CLEAR AIR PRODUCTS AND FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE RAIN OVER CENTRAL EUROPE

State of the art Nowcasting techniques at DWD use satellite cloud analysis and Radar-images to detect and extrapolate cells. These methods detect convection at the earliest when the first cloud or even the first raindrops occur. To improve the Nowcasting of convective systems and potential severe weather at the DWD domain, EUMETSATs Nowcasting Satellite Application Facilities (NWCSAF) software was implemented. A section ranging from the Northern Atlantic to Eastern Europe is processed. The NWCSAF clear air products PGE06 and PGE08 (PGE- Product Generating Element) enlarge the lead time by analysing Total Precipitable Water (TPW) and Lifted Index (LI) in cloud free areas. Thus, regions with a high potential for convection may be delineated even before the first convective cloud occurs. In case studies these PGEs are characterised for Central Europe. For small areas, time series are derived from consecutive images. The correlation between time series and the appearance of convective cells have been investigated. Results of real-case studies concerning LI in Central Europe are shown. Furthermore, a possible method to forecast convective cells using LI and the trend of LI from consecutive images as input data will be presented. An attempt is made to bundle the atmospheric instability information derived from the NWCSAF products to provide the forecaster with a single warning product