Statistical Modelling of Severe Wind Gust

Abstract: The modelling of severe wind gust is a fundamental part of any wind hazard assessment. Statistical modelling approaches are usually used to describe the probability of occurrences of extreme winds. The classical extreme value theory based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the more recently developed peaks over threshold (POT) and the use of generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) are investigated. Practical issues such as the threshold selection and model validation are also discussed. Severe wind gust models were developed for a number of locations in Perth. Estimates of 50 and 100 year return period events are compared with estimates published by the Standards Australia for Perth (Region A), which are based on a single site. For coast sites, the predicted wind gust speeds are similar to those published by the Standards, while the inland sites have smaller wind gust speeds