Success rate of predicting the heliospheric magnetic field polarity with Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) synoptic charts

[1] The photospheric and heliospheric magnetic fields have been continuously observed at the L1 point by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) andWind and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft since 1996. The combined observations of the photospheric and heliospheric magnetic fields make it possible to more reliably predict the heliospheric magnetic field and more accurately estimate the success rate of the prediction. On the basis of the latitude dependence of the zonal polar field inferred from high-resolution MDI synoptic charts between 1996 and 2003 we fill in the polar data gaps in the MDI synoptic charts. To assess the influence of synoptic charts from different data sources on the prediction of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields, we compare the success rate of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) polarity predicted over 107 Carrington rotations from June 1996 to June 2004. We used the potential field source surface model and the synoptic charts from the Kitt Peak National Observatory, MDI, and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Themean success rate of the HMF polarity predicted usingMDI synoptic charts over 8 years is 0.862 ± 0.101, the best among the three photospheric data sources, although the difference among the three sources is small. This result validates the MDI synoptic charts in modeling coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields