FUTURE SOCIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

The pace and complexity of change has become so rapid over recent years that traditional approaches to transportation planning and management no longer appear to be valid. Transportation engineers and planners need to develop better insight into the range of future conditions in order to help them better cope with change over the next ten to twenty-five years. The objective of this paper is to explore future social and technological change as it relates to transportation decision making. Major changes have occurred and will continue to occur in communications, transportation technology, office automation, life styles, land use and economic conditions. The changes have been so profound that conventional methods for planning and management no longer appear to be possible. An alternative futures approach based upon recent experience in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA is described and appears to be a useful way to deal with uncertainty in formal planning efforts. A technology assessment and transfer process is also given as a way to improve transportation management and its ability to adopt innovation and change