5 LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper No. 32 Climate Hotspots: Climate-Induced Ecosystem Damage in Latin America

The global path of CO2 already surpasses that anticipated under the worst-case SRES scenario (Figure 1). Thus, the current trend may result in a situation that exceeds the direst of anticipated consequences. Although there are uncertainties with regard to exact consequences, there is high confidence (IPCC 2007) that impacts from climate change, even under significantly more modest emission scenarios, will affect the functioning and integrity of key ecosystems worldwide. These impacts will add to the stress already resulting from local anthropogenic effects (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2007) and combined represent an unprecedented challenge to the global biosphere. While the impacts are being felt globally, some regions will be more affected than others. In particular, the effects of climate change1 will likely heavily impact Latin America and the Caribbean, where there remains a substantial, but intrinsically fragile, natural capital and where there are a number of climate-sensitive ecoregions. These climate-sensitive regions should be further characterized to reflect the relative vulnerability of dependent populations (not just humans) to climate impacts. The situation contrasts with a relatively modest volume of CO2 emissions generated in the subcontinent.