What Drives Long-Term Biodiversity Change? New Insights from Combining Economics, Paleo-Ecology, and Environmental History

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the relationship between economic and environmental factors and biodiversity change in Scotland over the period 1600-2000. Our main hypothesis is that economic development, as captured by changes in prices, technological improvements and management intensity, is a significant determinant of long-run biodiversity change. The measure of biodiversity used here is an estimate of plant species diversity, constructed by the authors using paleo-ecological analysis of pollen remains. We assemble a new data set of historical land use and price data over 11 sites during this 400 year period; this data set also includes information on long-run climate change and extreme weather events, as well a