Optimal Allocation of Water Resources (Proceedings of the Fxeter Symposium, Julv 1982). IAHSPubl. no. 135. Uncertainty in reservoir operation

ABSTRACT This paper is concerned with the determination of the annual and monthly reliabilities of a single reservoir with releases regulated in accordance with a rule which minimizes losses. The emphasis is placed on the generation of the synthetic flows and on the estimation of the reliability curves while the development of the release rule is summarized very briefly. Annual flows are investigated first to account for possible long term dependence and to analyse the annual reliability of the reservoir. These flows are then disaggregated into monthly flows to evaluate the monthly reliability of the reservoir. SIMULATION OF ANNUAL FLOWS The following procedures are general. For the purpose of the exposition the annual series of the Gunpowder River inflows to Loc