q 2000 American Meteorological Society Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Hurricane and tropical storm statistics verify the modulation of eastern Pacific tropical systems by the Madden– Julian oscillation (MJO) as hypothesized by Maloney and Hartmann. Over twice as many named tropical systems (hurricanes and tropical storms) accompany equatorial 850-mb westerly anomalies than accompany equatorial easterly anomalies, and the systems that do exist are stronger. Hurricanes are over four times more numerous during westerly phases of the MJO than during easterly phases. The current study constructs a composite life cycle of the MJO during May–November 1979–95 using an index based on the 850-mb equatorial zonal wind. Equatorial Kelvin waves propagating eastward from convective regions of the western Pacific Ocean alter dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Westerly (easterly) equatorial 850-mb wind anomalies are accompanied by enhanced (suppressed) convection over the eastern Pacific hurricane region. Convection locally amplifies the wind anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Cyclonic horizontal shear of the low-level zonal wind and low vertical wind shear support tropical cyclogenesis. Periods of equatorial 850-mb westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO are accompanied by cyclonic low-level relative vorticity anomalies and near-zero vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific hurricane region. Easterly periods are accompanied by anticyclonic vorticity anomalies and less-favorable vertical wind shear. The vorticity anomalies are associated with variations in the meridional shear of the zonal wind. 1