Epidemiologic transition interrupted:

Background In the late 1980s and early 1990s a generalized HIV epidemic affected Thailand which was relatively well controlled by an intensive national campaign by the mid 1990s. The extent to which the epidemic has slowed or possibly reversed the epidemiological transition in Thailand is relatively unknown. Methods Under-five mortality rates (U5MR) were determined from various sources and weighted least squares regression conducted to determine U5MR over the years 1980–2000. Direct and indirect estimates of the completeness of death registration were used to estimate mortality levels in those aged more than 5 years for the 1980–90 and 1990–2000 periods. Life tables were constructed using the various estimates to determine changes in life-expectancy between the two time periods. Results U5MR in Thailand is estimated to have been 58/1000 live births in 1980, declining to 30 in 1990 and to 23 in 2000. The vital registration system clearly underestimates U5MR. Successive surveys of Population Change (SPC) impl