A Dynamic Network Approach to the Assessment of Terrorist Groups and the Impact of Alternative Courses of Action

Dynamic network analysis (DNA) is an emergent field centered on the collection, analysis, understanding and prediction of dynamic relations among various entities such as actors, events and resources and the impact of such dynamics on individual and group behaviour. DNA facilitates reasoning about terrorist groups as complex dynamic networked systems that evolve over time. An interoperable DNA toolchain for collecting data on, assessing the network of, and forecasting changes in that network is presented. The use of these DNA tools to asses a terrorist group is then demonstrated using open source data. Key techniques are demonstrated using a dataset collected on terror networks. Techniques demonstrated include those for identification of an actor’s sphere of influence, emergent leaders, and paths among critical actors, and metrics for assessing the potential immediate and near term impact of various courses of action. 1.0 DYNAMIC NETWORK ANALYSIS Complex socio-technical systems are furthermore dynamic. The dynamics result from multiple change processes such as natural evolutionary processes including learning, birth and aging as well as intervention processes such as altering the set of individuals who lead a system. Data on these systems is often incomplete, replete with errors, and difficult to collect, which further complicates the understanding an