The influence of perceptions of media influence: Third-person effects and the public expression of opinions

This paper explores the role of perceptions of the opinions of others ais they relate to the formation of public opinion. Two interrelated theories involving such perceptions, the third person effect and the spiral of silence, are tested in the context of public opinion regarding divestment of financial interests in South Africa. As hypothesized by the third person effect, perceptions of the influence of media reports on others were found to be consistently greater than perceptions of influence on self. Findings were strongly supportive of this component of the 'third person effect ' hy-pothesis. Perceptions of the opinions of others were also explored in relation to respond-ents ' willingness to express their opinions publicly. As suggested by the spiral of silence theory, respondents were found to be more willing to express their opinions publicly when they perceived a trend in support of their viewpoint, or when there was a greater perceived likelihood of achieving success for their issue position. The size of the effect produced from joining these two processes is moderated by the role of issue salience. People perceiving divestment as a highly important issue are more likely to ascribe greater media influence to others than to themselves, but their willing-ness to express their opinions publicly is least likely to be influenced by perceptions of the climate of opinion. THE THIRD PERSON EFFECT In the process of public opinion formation few people have access to accurate in-formation about the state of their social environment with respect to some issue