Investigation of Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables for the Van Nuys Testbed

iii A major component of a building-specific seismic loss analysis is the estimation of repair costs in future earthquakes. A number of uncertain variables contribute to the uncertainty in these cost estimates. Among these are ground-shaking intensity, details of the ground motion, mass, damping, and force-deformation behavior, component fragility, repair methods, contractor’s direct costs, and contractor’s overhead and profit, among others. This report addresses which of these significantly contribute to the overall uncertainty in future economic performance. We examine gross sensitivity by measuring the variation (or swing) of the economic performance when each variable is taken at its assumed median value and at its extremes, e.g., the 10th and 90th percentiles. Such a study is undertaken for a 1960s nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building located in Van Nuys, California, which is one of two buildings studied by the PEER testbeds program. Here, economic performance is measured in terms of the repair costs associated with the (uncertain) highest shaking intensity the site will experience in the next 5