Projecting Future-Year Pollutant Emissions: Emerging Approaches from the EPA ORD Global Change Air Quality Assessment

The U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development is exploring approaches for assessing the relative impacts of climate and emissions changes on future-year air quality. A challenge related to this effort is the development of emission inventories out to the year 2050. This paper describes a methodology that is under development. The methodology allows consideration of various assumptions regarding population growth and migration, economic growth, technological change, fuel resource constraints, and pollutant emissions policies