Will the Kyoto Protocol Be Good for the Environment? Implications for Agriculture

Economics Society (Montreal, July 2003) in a session entitled “Ramifications of Multilateral Environmental Agreements for the Agri-food Sector”. Papers presented at CAES meetings are not subject to the journal’s standard refereeing process. The Issue Global warming or, more accurately, climate change remains a hotly debated issue in scientific, government and public circles. While the extent of the human contribution to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remains highly controversial, the scientific evidence of significant changes in climate per se appears to be mounting (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001). Since changes in climate typically will include greater variability in temperatures, more extreme weather events and changes in precipitation patterns as well as a general warming trend, there are significant risks for agriculture. 2 If human activity does turn out to have a significant causal effect on climate change, the Kyoto Protocol and other related multilateral environmental agreements appear to have the potential to reduce these risks. The Kyoto Protocol, however, leaves possible channels for increases in emissions or so-called carbon leakage. Implications and Conclusions This article examines the possibility of global carbon leakage and finds that the Kyoto agreement might be counterproductive in the sense that compliance by signatory countries could lead to an increase in global GHG emissions. The article reports on