Development and Validation of a Model That Predicts the Academic Ranking of First-Year Pharmacy Students1

The purpose of this study was to determine the value of prepharmacy GPA, PCAT scores, and prior attain-ment of a four-year college degree in predicting the academic performance ranking of first-year pharma-cy students. Specific objectives of the study were to: (i) identify the value of prepharmacy GPA, prephar-macy math/science GPA, PCAT scores and the attainment of a four-year college degree prior to entering pharmacy school in predicting whether a student will be at or below the 25th percentile or above the 25th percentile of the class as determined by the student’s first professional pharmacy year GPA; (ii) develop and apply a model that predicts which students will be at or below the 25th percentile or above the 25th percentile of the class as determined by their first professional pharmacy year GPA; and (iii) determine the classification accuracy of the model in predicting which students who are at or below the 25th percentile or above the 25th percentile of the class as determined by students ’ first professional pharmacy year GPA. The academic records of 436 students who entered the University of Georgia College of Pharmacy College during 1993-1996 were examined to develop and validate a model that predicts the academic rank of students by the end of their first professional year of pharmacy school. Of the variables examined, math/science GPA and attainment of a prior four-year college degree, but not scores on the PCAT, were the best predictors of academic rank for first-year pharmacy students (P<0.01) with a 92 to 96 percent accuracy rate for predicting students above the 25th percentile and a 27 to 30 percent accuracy rate for predicting students at or below the 25th percentile of the class