A Foot and Mouth Disease Induced Model of US Excess Supply of Beef

reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. 1. BACKGROUND Agriculture is a vulnerable sector of the U.S economy, accounting for 13 % of Gross Domestic Product and 15 % of employment. It produces quality cheap food for domestic consumption and accounts for more than $65 billion in export revenues. Contagious animal diseases like Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) are often referred to as economic diseases because of the magnitude of harm they cause producers, local communities and the consequences in international trade. In recent years, FMD has been at the forefront of public and private sector interest due to its proven crippling effects on agriculture and tourism. Losses from the 2001 FMD outbreak in the United Kingdom are estimated at $10.7 to $11.7 billion. The total cost of an FMD outbreak is the sum of eradication cost, production losses, and the loss of exports (Pendell, 2007). FMD is a highly contagious viral disease affecting primarily cloven-hoofed animals, such as cattle, sheep, swine, and goats have 7 types and over 80 subtypes. Immunity to, o