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Policy, ” hosted by the Gerzensee Study Center, Switzerland. We received useful comments from multiple conference participants. We are particularly grateful to our discussants, Stephen Morris and Elmar Mertens, and to the organizers of the conference, Sergio Rebelo and Robert King. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications