Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey∗

We investigate the relationship between oil prices and manufacturing sector of a small open economy, Turkey. We take into account exogeneity of oil prices, extreme oil-reliance and import-dependence, as well as asymmetric responses of oil product prices to world crude oil price changes. We also control for the global liquidity and domestic finance conditions, along with real exchange rate dynamics in our VAR estimations. We report that while oil price increases do not significantly effect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms, some sub-sectors are adversely affected