Demography, Urbanization and Development: Rural Push, Urban Pull and... Urban Push?∗

Abstract: Developing countries have rapidly urbanized since 1950. To explain urbanization, standard models have emphasized rural-urban migration, focusing on rural push factors (agricultural modernization and rural poverty) and urban pull factors (industrialization and urban-biased policies). Using newly compiled historical data on urban birth and death rates for 7 countries from Industrial Europe (1800-1910) and 33 developing countries (1960-2010), we show that a non-negligible part of developing countries ’ rapid urban growth and urbanization can also be linked to demographic factors, i.e. rapid internal urban population growth, or an urban push. The much lower urban mortality of today’s developing countries, relative to Industrial Europe, where higher urban death rates virtually offset urban births, has compounded the effects of migration. High urban natural increase, rather than migration, is also found to be associated with urban congestion, thus providin