Modeling pandemic preparedness scenarios: health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply

Influenza pandemic planning is a complex, multifactorial process, which involves public health authorities, regulatory authorities, academia and industry. It is further complicated by the unpredictability of the time of emergence and severity of the next pandemic and the effectiveness of influenza epidemic interventions. The complexity and uncertainties surrounding pandemic preparedness have so far kept the various stakeholders from joining forces and tackling the problem from its roots. We developed a mathematical model, which shows the tangible consequences of conceptual plans by linking possible pandemic scenarios to health economic outcomes of possible intervention strategies. This model helps to structure the discussion on pandemic preparedness and facilitates the translation of pandemic planning concepts to concrete plans. The case study for which the model has been used shows the current level of global pandemic preparedness in an assumed pandemic scenario, the health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply and the importance of cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing technologies as a tool for pandemic control. © 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V. 1