© World Nuclear Association 2003 1 Uranium: Sustainable Resource or Limit to

Nuclear power has many advantages, among them at least two that directly flow from the uranium energy source itself- the low cost of the natural uranium as a proportion of overall generati g costs, and the small amount of fuel necessary to provide very large amounts of energy. However, some recent publications have promoted the view that limited supplies of natural uranium are the Achilles heel of nuclear power as the sector contemplates a larger contribution to future clean energy [1], and even at this Symposium, authors have stated that finite resources will require the acceleration of fast breeder technology [2]. Is this true? If not, what gives the nuclear industry the confidence that new uranium supply will appear when needed? The answer involves taking a view of supply that goes well beyond the short term, and includes the entire economic system within which natural resources are discovered, developed, and produced. Uranium supply news is usually framed within a short-term perspective. The concerns of short-term supply thinking are well known: who is producing with what resources, who might produce or sell, and how does this balance with demand? However, long-term supply analysis enters the realm of resource economics. This discipline has as a central concern the understanding of not just supply/demand/price dynamics for known resources, but also the mechanisms for replacing resources with new ones presently unknown. Such a focus on sustainability of supply is unique to the long view. This paper summarizes some of the perspectives and analysis that support the following conclusion: uranium supply, like that for other metals, is economically sustainable. This means that normally functioning metals markets and technology change provide the drivers to ensure that supply at costs affordable to consumers is continuously replenished, both through the discovery of new resources and the re-definition (in economic terms) of known ones