ADVANCED PROBABILISTIC POWER FLOW METHODOLOGY

Abstract – A comprehensive model for stochastic load flow analysis in electric power systems is proposed for the purpose of estimating the statistics of bus voltage magni-tudes, circuit currents and transmission line power flows. The proposed method is driven by a realistic non-conforming stochastic electric load model, defined in terms of few independent stochastic processes; it is based on the quadratized power flow formulation and it can account for the major operating practices of electric power grids, such as economic dispatch, congestion management or other network constraints. The statistics of circuit currents, bus voltage magnitudes, and line power flows are computed from linearized models of these quantities with respect to the independent stochastic load variables at multiple points. The method is validated via Monte Carlo simulations in which the problem is fully solved for each random sample, incor-porating nonlinearities resulting from the AC power flow equations and operating constraints. The proposed method is demonstrated with the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS) and results are presented in the paper