Modeling Location Choices of Housing Builders in the Greater Toronto Area

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial choice of housing builders in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). A spatially disaggregate database of 126,462 new housing units built by 445 builders is used to analyze the determinants of the intra-metropolitan location of new housing. Housing starts are classified into four types: detached, semi-detached, condominiums, and row/link housing. An accessibility analysis shows that the GTA remains a mono-centric region, where accessibility for most activities declines with distance from the CBD. The results show that high development taxes in the suburbs encourage low-rise, low-density development. The location choice of homebuilders differs by housing type. For instance, builders are more likely to choose high-density areas with high accessibility to jobs to locate new condominiums. They are also likely to supply detached (low-rise) housing in low-density areas with low accessibility to work and other activities. Neighborhood attributes help determine the type of housing likely to be built in the vicinity. Also, the location of low-rise residential units and planned residential construction is influenced by proximity to major transport corridors in the GTA. The location of condominiums is influenced by proximity to th