1 Forecasting exchange rates using neural network and fuzzy system based techniques

ABSTRACT: Forecasting currency exchange rates are an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention especially because of its intrinsic difficulty and practical applications. During the last few years, a number of non-linear models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to ameliorate the performance of the traditional linear approaches. Among them, neural network models have been used with encouraging results. This paper presents improved neural network and fuzzy models used for exchange rate pr diction. Several approaches including multi-layer perceprtons, radial basis functions, dynamic neural networks and fuzzy-neural-type networks have been proposed and discussed. Their performances for one-step a-head pr dictions have been evaluated through a study, using real exchange daily rate values of the US Dollar vs. British Pound