1 Developing Alberta’s Oil Sands: Who Bears the Risk?

Simulation models of stylized oil sands projects that include detailed representations of different royalty and tax systems are developed. These models are then used to examine the distribution between developers and governments of net revenues associated with the development and production of Alberta’s oil sands deposits. A specific focus is to assess the estimated effects on the level and distribution of net revenues associated with a number of specific changes in assumed cost and revenue conditions. The results suggest developers typically bear a greater share of the consequences of variations in capital expenditures than they do of changes in operating expenditures and prices. A comparison across royalty and tax systems suggest that there tends to be a positive relationship between the level of net revenues estimated to accrue to either developers or governments and the share of the effects of changes in cost and revenue conditions borne by that party