2005: Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: Unforced variations versus forced changes

A 1200-yr unforced control run and future climate change simulations using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), a coupled atmosphere–ocean–land–sea ice global model with no flux adjustments and relatively high resolution (2.8 ° for the atmosphere and 2/3 ° for the oceans) are analyzed for changes in Atlantic Ocean circulations. For the forced simulations, historical greenhouse gas and sulfate forcing of the twentieth century and projected forcing for the next two centuries are used. The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) shows large multidecadal (15–40 yr) variations with mean-peak amplitudes of 1.5–3.0 Sv (1 Sv 106 m3 s1) and a sharp peak of power around a 24-yr period in the control run. Associated with the THC oscillations, there are large variations in North Atlantic Ocean heat transport, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS), sea ice fraction, and net surface water and energy fluxes, which all lag the variations in THC strength by 2–3 yr. However, the net effect of the SST and SSS variations on upper-ocean density in the midlatitude North Atlantic leads the THC variations by about 6 yr, which results in the 24-yr period. The simulated SST and sea ice spatial patterns associated with the THC oscillations resemble those in observed SST and sea ice concentrations that are associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results suggest a dominant role of the advective mechanism and strong coupling between the THC an