Hot Hand Belief and Hot Hand Behavior:

In our comment on Koehler and Conley’s (2003) findings on the “hot hand” belief, we want to emphasize the different conclusions that can be drawn from their results by applying the concept of ecological rationality. The choice of environmental contexts and structures imposes constraints on possible inter-pretations of the results obtained. Differentiating between the cognitive and behavioral levels of the phenomenon seems analytically useful, particularly if practical recommendations to professionals are to be made. The implications of Koehler and Conley’s data, new evidence, and the relationship between the perceived streaks of players and their base rates are discussed with the aim of developing empirically founded recommendations to professionals in sports, especially in real game situations. Key Words: basketball, streaks, base rate, adaptiveness, ecological rationality Koehler and Conley (2003) have provided new evidence in the ongoing study of the detection of dependency in performance streaks. Research on the “hot hand” belief, the belief that “an athlete’s performance temporarily increases beyond hi