Analysis of Surface Water Quality in Tehran

Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing time series analysis of the monthly water quality in surface water in Tehran was conducted as a case study. Various univariate models were developed for each determinand. Most of the models were seasonal, indicating that the water quality determinands vary throughout the year. The models follow the same pattern of variations present in the data. This study shows the credibility of the models, therefore the models may be used for future design purposes. Key words: time series analysis, exponential smoothing model, diagnostic, identification, Box-Jenkins mode